For the fourth time in a row, Germany will record the world’s largest surplus of exports to imports. That’s the prognosis according to Munich’s Ifo Institute for Economic Research.
Despite the current worries about export markets around the world, the institute projects that Germany will finish 2019 with an export plus of 276 billion dollars. The surplus represents 7.1 percent of German GDP.
Japan is set to record the second highest surplus, 188 billion dollars, while China is projected to run a plus of 182 billion dollars.
The country with the largest trade deficit remains the United States, which is set to book a minus of 480 billion dollars, despite a raft of punitive tariffs on imports to the US. Experts say that such levies rarely change balances of trade dramatically.
“The trade conflict affects both exports and imports so the effect on the balance of the two this year should be quite small,” says Ifo economist Christian Grimme.