Monitoring Corona Recovery

June 2020

Is an economy bouncing back from the coronavirus crisis? And if so, how fast? These questions can be difficult to answer since the coronavirus pandemic is such a fast-moving situation, meaning that traditional economic indicators can lag significantly behind the current reality.

To address this problem, economist Ralph Solveen from Germany’s Commerzbank has developed a “Recovery Monitor” that uses hard indicators not usually part of traditional forecasts to diagnose the state of the German economy.

They include the level of tolls collected from transport trucks on German highways, the country’s consumption of electricity, the number of people taking public transport, the number of diners eating out in restaurants and the level of consumers in retail outlets, excluding supermarkets.

All of these data sets are collected far more frequently than traditional economic indicators. The Recovery Index has been adopted by leading German business magazine Wirtschaftswoche.

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